Not all at once. In August 2026, Stanford researchers wrote, "We do not see widespread, economy-wide job displacement associated with AI." Most of the pressure falls on screen tasks that repeat. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects data entry keyer jobs will fall 25.5% from 2025 to 2035, while software developer jobs grow 10.2%. List your tasks, then build up the ones that need hands, judgment or a license.

Last updated: October 29, 2026

A man in a cardigan and a younger man sit side by side at a wooden desk. The older man points at a page in a stack of forms, and a laptop sits open beside them.

Why it matters

Stanford's data points to fewer hires of young workers, not more firings. The Stanford Digital Economy Lab found that, as of June 2026, employment of workers ages 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed jobs was about 19% below where it would be if it had kept pace with less exposed peers. Experienced workers showed no comparable gap. They wrote, "The adjustment appears to operate primarily through reduced hiring of young workers rather than increased separations." They also wrote, "These are descriptive patterns, not causal estimates of the effect of AI." The study uses payroll data from ADP and an exposure measure whose authors include OpenAI researchers.

Tasks under pressure

Look at your tasks, not your title. These tasks are on a screen, repeat often and are easy to check. The first four come from the Labor Department's O*NET task lists. Figures are BLS projections for 2025 to 2035.

  • Entering data and checking it against source documents. Data entry keyer jobs are projected to fall 25.5%, from 131,800 to 98,200.

  • Answering routine customer questions and keeping records of each call. Customer service rep jobs are projected to fall 5.3%.

  • Checking postings and reconciling records. Bookkeeping clerk jobs are projected to fall 5.6%.

  • Preparing claim forms and posting information to claim files. Insurance claims clerk jobs are projected to fall 1.9%.

  • Entry-level coding. Software developer jobs are projected to grow 10.2%, about 174,700 more jobs. "71% of the increase in software development job postings between May 2025 and May 2026 is from senior roles," Indeed Hiring Lab wrote on July 8, 2026. Indeed is a job site, and postings are not hires.

BLS rates all of these jobs as having very high AI exposure. BLS says, "An exposure category is not a forecast of employment growth or decline." Software developers are rated very high and are still projected to grow.

What companies have said and done

Oracle's own filing links AI to workforce reductions. In its annual report filed June 22, 2026, Oracle said "the adoption and deployment of AI technologies across our operations have resulted, and may continue to result, in reductions to our workforce." Separately, Washington State's layoff notice database lists an Oracle notice, received September 14, 2026, for 359 workers in Seattle. About 77 lines in the notice's list of affected job titles read "Software Developer." The notice gives no business reason beyond "a reduction in force and other terminations" and does not mention AI.

Cincinnati Insurance shows automation saving time on a task. An ACORD case study released July 15, 2026 reported "approximately 90% time savings in data entry for ACORD Forms" since the insurer began using ACORD Transcriber in 2021. ACORD calls its Transcriber tool an "intelligent document processing solution." The release does not mention headcount.

Tasks holding up better

These tasks need hands, a license, or a person on site. Figures are BLS projections for 2025 to 2035.

Gloved hands connect wires inside an open breaker panel on a wall. A tool belt with pliers and a multimeter sits below.

  • Installing and repairing wiring. Electrician jobs are projected to grow 9.2%. Plumber jobs are projected to grow 6.8%.

  • Hands-on patient and in-home care. Registered nurse jobs are projected to grow 5.6%. Home health and personal care aide jobs are projected to grow 18.1%, about 847,300 more jobs.

  • Grid repair. Power-line installer and repairer jobs are projected to grow 10.3%, from 131,900 to 145,500. Power plant operator jobs are projected to fall 5.1%, from 29,800 to 28,300.

  • Teaching. Teacher jobs are projected to stay about flat. Elementary teacher jobs are projected to fall 0.4%, and secondary teacher jobs 0.2%.

  • Running and fixing data center equipment. BLS has no single job code for this work. The Microsoft Datacenter Pathways program through Hiring Our Heroes is "Powered by Microsoft" and trains veterans for eight weeks with a $20 an hour stipend. As of October 26, 2026, applications were due November 12, 2026. Graduates who prove a good fit "will have the opportunity to interview for an open position."

If you run a small business

In the two weeks from September 21 to October 4, 2026, 24.3% of businesses with 1 to 4 employees said they used AI, according to the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey.

Start with tasks under pressure, like first replies to customers or data entry. The Small Business Administration says, "AI is relatively new, so start small." It also says to "have another person review all AI products," and, "Try not to feed any sensitive data or proprietary information."

What to do next

For workers

  1. Look up your job's task list on O*NET OnLine or My Next Move, and mark each task "screen and repeat" or "hands, judgment or license."

  2. Check your job's projected change for 2025 to 2035 and its median pay in the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook.

  3. Search the CareerOneStop Job Finder by a task you want more of, like data center technician work, and save three openings.

For small businesses

  1. Find a free Small Business B(AI)sics training through your local chamber. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation runs it with Google's support.

  2. Pick one repeat task, like first replies to customers, try an AI tool on it without sensitive data, and have a second person check every result before it goes out.

Sources

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