Hands-on jobs like electricians and home health aides are projected to grow, while screen-based jobs like data entry keyers are projected to shrink. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects data entry keyer jobs will fall 25.5% from 2025 to 2035. So sort your own tasks into hands-on and screen work. BLS ties declines like this one to software and AI that take over screen and records work.

Last updated: October 29, 2026

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Tasks, not titles

BLS rates each job's AI exposure by how much AI overlaps with its tasks. BLS says, "An exposure category is not a forecast of employment growth or decline."

A low rating is not a promise either. In BLS's words, "'Low' relative AI exposure does not necessarily mean the occupation will be unaffected by AI or is safe from future technological change."

Hands-on jobs are not all rated Low. Electricians, plumbers, HVAC mechanics and home health aides are rated Moderate. Registered nurses and elementary and secondary school teachers are rated High. Jobs rated Low include construction laborers, electrical power-line installers and licensed practical nurses.

Software developers show why a rating is not a job count. BLS rates them Very high for AI exposure, and it still projects their jobs will grow 10.2% from 2025 to 2035.

Two of the five sources behind the ratings come from AI companies, Anthropic and Microsoft, and use AI usage data from 2024 to 2025. The other three are what BLS calls theoretical sources, and BLS says they count AI capabilities "available no later than mid-2023."

Jobs projected to shrink: screen and records tasks

The pattern is screen work that repeats. These BLS projections run from 2025 to 2035. All jobs together are projected to grow 3.5%.

  • Data entry keyers: down 25.5%. The task is to "compare data with source documents," as O*NET lists it.

  • Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks: down 5.6%. The task is to "check figures, postings, and documents for correct entry," per O*NET.

  • Customer service representatives: down 5.3%. The task is to "keep records of customer interactions or transactions," per O*NET.

BLS gives its own reasons in its list of factors behind the projections. For customer service reps, it says "advances in speech and language processing and in artificial intelligence (AI) allow computers to handle customer service interactions with greater frequency." For bookkeeping clerks, it says "automated bookkeeping software will allow more bookkeeping work to be done by fewer employees."

A projected decline is not a layoff. In September 2026, employers named AI for 3,961 of 43,281 announced job cuts, per Challenger's September 2026 report. Challenger, which sells outplacement services, counts the reasons employers give.

AI can also take over a task without cutting the job. In a July 15, 2026 case study from ACORD, The Cincinnati Insurance Companies reported "approximately 90% time savings in data entry for ACORD Forms" after adopting the tool in 2021. ACORD sells the tool, and the case study reports time saved, not jobs cut.

Jobs projected to grow: hands-on tasks

The pattern is work you do in person. These are BLS projections for 2025 to 2035, with median pay from May 2025.

A worker in a cap and overalls loads a toolbox into a white van. The back of the van holds copper and white pipes and bins of pipe fittings.

  • Electricians: up 9.2%, median pay $63,190. Per O*NET, one task is to "connect wires to circuit breakers, transformers, or other components."

  • Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters: up 6.8%, median pay $63,800. The tasks include installing "underground storm, sanitary, or water piping systems," per O*NET.

  • Home health and personal care aides: up 18.1%, about 847,300 more jobs, median pay $35,800. Helping patients move "in and out of beds, baths, wheelchairs, or automobiles" is one task O*NET lists. That pay is below the $50,980 median for all jobs.

  • Registered nurses: up 5.6%, median pay $97,550.

Even growing jobs have screen tasks. One nurse task on O*NET is to "record patients' medical information and vital signs."

BLS ties electrician growth partly to AI itself. Its electricians page says "the increasing use of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and demand for data centers" are expected to add to electricity demand.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang named the trades at the World Economic Forum on January 21, 2026: "We're going to have plumbers and electricians and construction and steel workers and network technicians." Nvidia sells the chips those data centers are built for.

Teachers are not on the growth list. BLS projects elementary school teacher jobs will dip 0.4% and secondary school teacher jobs 0.2% from 2025 to 2035.

If you run a small business

In the two weeks from September 21 to October 4, 2026, 16.1% of construction businesses used AI, according to the Census Bureau's Business Trends and Outlook Survey. That compares with 24.6% of all U.S. employer businesses.

If your shop needs electricians, plumbers or HVAC techs, the U.S. Department of Labor's Registered Apprenticeship for employers program helps you train them on the job. For office tasks, the Small Business Administration says to "start small" and to "have another person review all AI products."

What to do next

For workers

  1. Open the O*NET OnLine page for your job and mark each task as hands-on or on a screen.

  2. Look up your job in the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook and write down its projected change for 2025 to 2035 and its median pay.

  3. Search the Apprenticeship Finder for a trade near you, then check your state's rules in the CareerOneStop License Finder.

For small businesses

  1. Read the Department of Labor's Registered Apprenticeship for employers page and list one role to train for in-house.

  2. Book a free mentor through SCORE, which says its mentoring "is a free service offered to any aspiring or established owners of a U.S.-based business."

Sources

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